Sun, May 3
Race 10
Vagrncy-G3
Post: 5:48 · 6.5f · Dirt · $175K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #4 WITH THE ANGELS (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 MY MAGIC WAND (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 MYSTIC LAKE (E, QSP 4)
- #6 PRAYING (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 4, 5, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
8.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$15.07
mean $15.34
Expected ROI
-78.2%
net $-4.69
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 5, 7] — hits 8.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $15 (mean $15; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
5, 7, 6
C Value-edge longshots
2, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.5% | $16.05 | -78% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 16.0% | $17.88 | -74% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 16.2% | $17.88 | -75% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 15.1% | $17.42 | -76% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 25.1% | $18.98 | -70% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPWITH THE ANGELS | 2.5-1 | 1.9-1 | 94.9 | 25% | 67% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | BPGRAMMY GIRL | 4.0-1 | 4.7-1 | 91.1 | 17% | 52% | ·+1% |
| 7 | BEMYSTIC LAKE | 3.5-1 | 5.1-1 | 92.1 | 16% | 49% | ▼-8% |
| 6 | BEPPRAYING | 5.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 91.6 | 14% | 46% | ·+3% |
| 1 | CPWONDROUS | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 89.0 | 14% | 45% | ▲+16% |
| 2 | CEPMY MAGIC WAND | 15-1 | 15-1 | 89.6 | 13% | 42% | ▲+26% |
| 3 | SCREKAPPA KAPPA | 3.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sun, May 3 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.