Sat, May 16
Race 9
JWMurphyB100k
Post: 3:30 · 1m · Turf · $100K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 JESSICA'S EYES (EP, QSP 8)
- #1 MY FAVORITE BIRD (P, QSP 7)
- #4 ATTFIELD (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 PROTON (EP, QSP 6)
- #8 J CODY (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 THEBABESLAYER (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
2×4×4 part wheel on posts 6, 4, 5, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$12.00
12 combos
Hit prob
18.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$79.82
mean $97.05
Expected ROI
+46.8%
net $5.61
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 2×4×4 part wheel on posts [6, 4, 5, 2] — hits 18.1% of simulated runs
- · At $12 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $80 (mean $97; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
6, 4
B Contenders
5, 2, 1
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 20.0% | $83.79 | +28% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 33.2% | $79.82 | +22% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 9.3% | $95.87 | +67% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 17.0% | $83.79 | +23% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 10.7% | $63.83 | +21% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | APTURF STAR | 2.5-1 | 2.4-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 84.7 | 22% | 61% | ▲+19% |
| 4 | AEPATTFIELD | 4.5-1 | 4.4-1 | ·3.5-1 | 84.8 | 20% | 58% | ·+1% |
| 5 | BEPPROTON | 1.8-1 | 1.8-1 | ·1.8-1 | 84.0 | 19% | 55% | ▼-36% |
| 2 | BEPTHEBABESLAYER | 6.0-1 | 7.9-1 | ·5.0-1 | 83.7 | 15% | 48% | ▲+5% |
| 1 | BPMY FAVORITE BIRD | 10-1 | 12-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 84.1 | 15% | 47% | ▼-38% |
| 7 | EPJESSICA'S EYES | 30-1 | 47-1 | ↓16-1 | 72.7 | 5% | 18% | ·+3% |
| 8 | EPJ CODY | 30-1 | 44-1 | ·28-1 | 73.0 | 4% | 13% | ·+4% |
| 3 | SCRPZIHNAL | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.