Sat, May 16
Race 5
Alw 54000n1x
Post: 12:51 · 1m · Turf · $54K purse · 14 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
14 runnersHot pace
9 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 SO DARN PRETTY (E, QSP 8)
- #4 SASSARI (E, QSP 6)
- #15 DEVASTATING (EP, QSP 6)
- #11 DETERMIND PRINCESS (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 SERENITY SONG (EP, QSP 5)
- #13 CHILLY GIRL (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 DON'T FOOL WITH ME (EP, QSP 5)
- #12 SHARMIN (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 SYNERGISM (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 7, 4, 6, 15
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$164.29
mean $260.31
Expected ROI
-39.6%
net $-2.38
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [7, 4, 6, 15] — hits 1.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $164 (mean $260; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7, 4
B Contenders
6, 15, 5
C Value-edge longshots
13, 11
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.6% | $164.29 | -50% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.5% | $153.00 | -48% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.8% | $153.00 | -50% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 5.0% | $164.29 | -39% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.8% | $153.00 | -53% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | APMAMBO QUEEN | 5.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 80.5 | 14% | 40% | ·-3% |
| 4 | AESASSARI | 2.5-1 | 1.6-1 | 79.2 | 12% | 35% | ▼-38% |
| 6 | BEPSYNERGISM | 15-1 | 14-1 | 77.0 | 10% | 30% | ▲+14% |
| 15 | BEPDEVASTATING | 10-1 | 13-1 | 78.4 | 9% | 26% | ·+3% |
| 5 | BEPSERENITY SONG | 10-1 | 7.5-1 | 77.0 | 8% | 25% | ·+2% |
| 3 | PI LOVE GIRAFFES | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 77.6 | 8% | 23% | ▼-13% |
| 1 | SNICK'S NOTION | 12-1 | 15-1 | 77.4 | 7% | 23% | ·+3% |
| 13 | CEPCHILLY GIRL | 30-1 | 35-1 | 76.1 | 6% | 18% | ▲+10% |
| 11 | CEPDETERMIND PRINCESS | 30-1 | 44-1 | 75.3 | 5% | 17% | ▲+9% |
| 10 | SBUZZAWAY | 15-1 | 25-1 | 72.3 | 5% | 15% | ·-1% |
| 2 | EPDON'T FOOL WITH ME | 30-1 | 43-1 | 73.5 | 5% | 15% | ▲+7% |
| 9 | PTIDEOFTIME | 10-1 | 13-1 | 76.8 | 5% | 15% | ▼-8% |
| 12 | EPSHARMIN | 12-1 | 16-1 | 71.1 | 4% | 13% | ▼-7% |
| 8 | ESO DARN PRETTY | 12-1 | 17-1 | 63.1 | 2% | 5% | ▼-14% |
| 14 | SCRSLOVELY LOOKIN LILI | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.