Sat, May 16
Race 13
Preaknes-G1
Post: 7:01 · 1.19m · Dirt · $2.00M purse · 14 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 14 of 14 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
14 runnersHot pace
11 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 THE HELL WE DID (EP, QSP 8)
- #11 CORONA DE ORO (EP, QSP 8)
- #9 IRON HONOR (EP, QSP 7)
- #10 NAPOLEON SOLO (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 CHIP HONCHO (E, QSP 7)
- #1 TAJ MAHAL (EP, QSP 6)
- #14 PRETTY BOY MIAH (E, QSP 6)
- #3 CRUPPER (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 TALKIN (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 ROBUSTA (EP, QSP 5)
- #13 GREAT WHITE (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 9, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$530.61
mean $536.50
Expected ROI
+44.9%
net $2.69
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 9, 2] — hits 1.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $531 (mean $537; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
9, 2, 12
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.5% | $372.95 | +1% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 4.9% | $498.28 | +0% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.9% | $344.66 | -2% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.6% | $313.33 | -6% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.8% | $361.18 | -4% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPTAJ MAHAL | 5.0-1 | 4.1-1 | ·4.5-1 | 94.6 | 20% | 51% | ·+4% |
| 9 | BEPIRON HONOR | 4.5-1 | 4.5-1 | ↑9.0-1 | 92.5 | 10% | 29% | ·+3% |
| 2 | BPOCELLI | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 91.9 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 12 | BPINCREDIBOLT | 5.0-1 | 5.9-1 | ·5.0-1 | 91.2 | 9% | 26% | ▼-17% |
| 10 | EPNAPOLEON SOLO | 8.0-1 | 9.2-1 | ↑10-1 | 90.9 | 7% | 23% | ·-0% |
| 6 | ECHIP HONCHO | 5.0-1 | 6.5-1 | ↑10-1 | 89.4 | 7% | 21% | ·-2% |
| 5 | EPTALKIN | 20-1 | 33-1 | ↓10-1 | 88.3 | 6% | 20% | ·-3% |
| 8 | PBULL BY THE HORNS | 30-1 | 45-1 | ↓17-1 | 86.9 | 6% | 19% | ·+4% |
| 4 | EPROBUSTA | 30-1 | 56-1 | ·25-1 | 90.5 | 6% | 17% | ▲+8% |
| 14 | EPRETTY BOY MIAH | 15-1 | 20-1 | ↑24-1 | 84.1 | 6% | 17% | ▲+7% |
| 13 | EPGREAT WHITE | 15-1 | 26-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 86.2 | 4% | 14% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | EPTHE HELL WE DID | 15-1 | 17-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 84.1 | 4% | 13% | ▼-13% |
| 11 | EPCORONA DE ORO | 30-1 | 52-1 | ↓17-1 | 84.4 | 4% | 12% | ·-2% |
| 3 | EPCRUPPER | 30-1 | 59-1 | ·25-1 | 82.0 | 3% | 10% | ·+0% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 13 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.