Sun, May 3
Race 6
Md Sp Wt
Post: 3:31 · 5f · Turf · $68K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersUnprojectable
5 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #6 PERFECT TWIRL (E, QSP 0)
5 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 5, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
8.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$11.86
mean $13.89
Expected ROI
-79.4%
net $-4.76
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 5, 3] — hits 8.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $12 (mean $14; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
5, 3, 2
C Value-edge longshots
4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 9.3% | $11.16 | -82% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 13.3% | $11.16 | -77% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 17.2% | $11.37 | -73% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.4% | $11.37 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 24.2% | $11.37 | -70% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASCHESTNUT | 1.6-1 | 0.8-1 | 74.9 | 27% | 69% | ▼-29% |
| 5 | BAMERICANEXPRESSION | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 71.5 | 18% | 53% | ▼-20% |
| 3 | BSHE INSPIRES | 4.5-1 | 4.9-1 | 70.6 | 15% | 46% | ·-1% |
| 2 | BGOTTA BE MADISON | 4.0-1 | 4.8-1 | 70.5 | 14% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 4 | CA MOMENT A LOVE | 12-1 | 15-1 | 67.9 | 13% | 42% | ▲+23% |
| 7 | RISHONA | 8.0-1 | 14-1 | 69.2 | 9% | 31% | ·+3% |
| 6 | EPERFECT TWIRL | 20-1 | 31-1 | 54.7 | 4% | 14% | ·+2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sun, May 3 · Gulfstream Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.