Sun, May 3
Race 5
Clm 8000n2l
Post: 2:57 · 1.04m · Dirt · $27K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 MESSAGE OF HOPE (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 EXCUSES (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 COMPLEXED (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 SWAMP FOX (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 2, 3, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$25.16
mean $26.46
Expected ROI
-68.3%
net $-4.10
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 3, 6] — hits 7.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $25 (mean $26; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
2, 3
B Contenders
6, 8, 1
C Value-edge longshots
4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.4% | $26.66 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.1% | $30.34 | -63% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 12.2% | $22.40 | -75% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 24.5% | $35.44 | -56% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 17.1% | $26.66 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPSWAMP FOX | 2.5-1 | 2.3-1 | 73.7 | 19% | 54% | ▼-19% |
| 3 | ASLOMAX | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 73.6 | 19% | 54% | ▲+17% |
| 6 | BEPMESSAGE OF HOPE | 8.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 76.0 | 18% | 52% | ▲+23% |
| 8 | BEPEXCUSES | 10-1 | 9.9-1 | 71.5 | 15% | 47% | ▲+24% |
| 1 | BEPCOMPLEXED | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 71.3 | 15% | 46% | ▲+10% |
| 4 | CSMEGA DON | 12-1 | 14-1 | 68.8 | 11% | 35% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | SLAIRD OF MAGNOLIA | 20-1 | 39-1 | 58.0 | 4% | 13% | ·+1% |
| 5 | SCREHILLBILLY BOB | 1.6-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sun, May 3 · Gulfstream Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.