Sun, May 3
Race 4
Md 25000
Post: 2:25 · 7.5f · Turf · $36K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 BASILICA LIGHT (E, QSP 1)
- #3 RIYAH AL NIL (EP, QSP 0)
1 of 6 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
TightHighest hit-rate tier — best chance to cash a small ticket. Still negative-EV after takeout, but the model has a read.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 4, 5, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
14.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$7.83
mean $12.24
Expected ROI
-70.4%
net $-4.22
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 4, 5, 2] — hits 14.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $8 (mean $12; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Top 4 cover the ITM math — chalk should hit; payouts likely small.
A Top picks
1, 4
B Contenders
5, 2, 7
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 16.7% | $9.39 | -73% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 28.5% | $12.60 | -65% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 22.0% | $15.70 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 25.6% | $15.70 | -66% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 42.9% | $15.70 | -61% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASSISTER SLEW | 1.6-1 | 1.7-1 | 71.3 | 26% | 69% | ▼-29% |
| 4 | ASSHES BLUE N ORANGE | 4.0-1 | 3.5-1 | 68.2 | 24% | 68% | ▲+17% |
| 5 | BSDECISIVE MAIARA | 3.0-1 | 3.4-1 | 67.0 | 18% | 57% | ▼-7% |
| 2 | BEBASILICA LIGHT | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | 66.1 | 16% | 52% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | BBELLA PATRONA | 12-1 | 11-1 | 60.0 | 11% | 37% | ▲+17% |
| 3 | EPRIYAH AL NIL | 20-1 | 38-1 | 53.5 | 5% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | SCRMAZORCA | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sun, May 3 · Gulfstream Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.