John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sun, May 3

Race 3

Clm 6250

Post: 1:53 · 6f · Dirt · $26K purse · 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Contested pace

3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.

2 E — pure early 1 EP — early/presser 2 P — presser

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 86% · Top 4 cover 2.57 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
4PGOLDEN VALLEY1.6-11.3-173.826%71%-27%
5PEVANORA2.5-13.1-175.525%69%·-4%
3EJUST TAKE NOTES3.0-14.0-173.219%60%·-4%
1EPFIVE EYES ONMICHEL4.5-14.5-171.518%57%+11%
2EGEAUX AMY20-122-167.413%43%+31%
6SCREPFOXY LADY6.0-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sun, May 3 · Gulfstream Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.