Mon, May 25
Race 1
Md 50000
Post: 12:45 · 6f · Dirt · $67K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 TELECASTER (E, QSP 7)
- #2 MY LUCKY PENNY (E, QSP 6)
- #11 CAPTAIN GABE (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 SINATRA (E, QSP 6)
- #4 MOUQEER (E, QSP 5)
3 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 9, 6, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$124.12
mean $135.91
Expected ROI
-75.0%
net $-4.50
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [9, 6, 2] — hits 1.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $124 (mean $136; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 6
B Contenders
2, 11, 3
C Value-edge longshots
8, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.2% | $28.18 | -90% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.3% | $61.96 | -87% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.3% | $34.65 | -88% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.4% | $62.46 | -88% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 4.4% | $61.96 | -84% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ASDONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN | 2.0-1 | 1.8-1 | 75.8 | 11% | 34% | ▼-51% |
| 6 | APGHOST PROTOCOL | 6.0-1 | 5.2-1 | 73.7 | 11% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 2 | BEMY LUCKY PENNY | 15-1 | 15-1 | 73.3 | 11% | 31% | ▲+15% |
| 11 | BEPCAPTAIN GABE | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 72.3 | 11% | 31% | ▼-25% |
| 3 | BSJOIN | 12-1 | 14-1 | 73.3 | 10% | 29% | ▲+9% |
| 4 | EMOUQEER | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 71.1 | 9% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 8 | CETELECASTER | 20-1 | 25-1 | 71.1 | 8% | 26% | ▲+13% |
| 1 | ESINATRA | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 70.2 | 8% | 24% | ·-4% |
| 10 | RAPID ASCENT | 15-1 | 19-1 | 70.1 | 8% | 23% | ▲+7% |
| 7 | KREWEZIN | 12-1 | 14-1 | 68.5 | 8% | 23% | ·+3% |
| 5 | CKENWOOD STREET | 30-1 | 49-1 | 68.9 | 7% | 20% | ▲+12% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.