Sat, May 16
Race 8
Md 50000
Post: 4:47 · 1.06m · Turf · $48K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersUnprojectable
6 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #11 HIP HOP DANCER (EP, QSP 5)
6 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 3, 10, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$85.44
mean $110.65
Expected ROI
-26.9%
net $-1.62
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 3, 10, 7] — hits 4.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $85 (mean $111; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 3
B Contenders
10, 7, 2
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 4.6% | $82.56 | -38% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.8% | $84.65 | -29% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.4% | $85.44 | -31% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 13.5% | $96.24 | -20% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 12.7% | $85.44 | -33% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | APNIGHT JASMINE | 2.5-1 | 2.9-1 | 71.3 | 19% | 52% | ▼-21% |
| 3 | AATHENA'S FURY | 3.0-1 | 2.7-1 | 69.4 | 18% | 51% | ▼-13% |
| 10 | BENTERPRISINGLY | 8.0-1 | 9.6-1 | 69.2 | 13% | 38% | ▲+9% |
| 7 | BSSKY LOW LOW | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 67.8 | 11% | 33% | ·+4% |
| 2 | BVALIANT DIVA | 6.0-1 | 10-1 | 65.6 | 9% | 27% | ▼-9% |
| 1 | PROCKET ROBIN | 6.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 63.9 | 8% | 27% | ▼-10% |
| 8 | SADDAGIRL ADDIE | 12-1 | 19-1 | 66.1 | 6% | 19% | ·-0% |
| 4 | SPEED WALKING | 10-1 | 16-1 | 60.8 | 5% | 17% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | NOT TAPPING | 8.0-1 | 8.1-1 | 57.1 | 4% | 14% | ▼-14% |
| 6 | TWO CLICKS | 15-1 | 26-1 | 56.5 | 3% | 11% | ·-4% |
| 11 | EPHIP HOP DANCER | 3.0-1 | 5.7-1 | 58.8 | 3% | 11% | ▼-52% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sat, May 16 · Belmont at The Big A. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.