Sat, Jun 6
Race 14
Alw 120000n1x
Post: 8:02 · 1m · Turf · $120K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersHot pace
8 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 ELNAJD (E, QSP 8)
- #12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (E, QSP 8)
- #10 OUTRUNNER (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 DOUBLE ACT (EP, QSP 6)
- #13 FORTUNE SELLER (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 FIRST CALL BOB (E, QSP 5)
- #9 GRIFFIN'S WHARF (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 BLOWN COVER (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 12, 10, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$187.99
mean $168.45
Expected ROI
-52.3%
net $-3.14
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 12, 10, 3] — hits 1.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $188 (mean $168; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8
B Contenders
12, 10, 3
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 2.4% | $187.99 | -42% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.7% | $119.84 | -66% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.2% | $186.33 | -55% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.1% | $119.21 | -63% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.8% | $180.13 | -57% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AEELNAJD | 5.0-1 | 4.4-1 | 88.1 | 15% | 42% | ·-1% |
| 12 | BESOUNDS LIKE A PLAN | 4.5-1 | 4.1-1 | 88.5 | 12% | 36% | ▼-10% |
| 10 | BEPOUTRUNNER | 5.0-1 | 4.8-1 | 87.0 | 11% | 31% | ▼-11% |
| 3 | BSWINNEBAGO | 10-1 | 8.2-1 | 86.9 | 11% | 31% | ▲+8% |
| 5 | PFAVORABLE SCENARIO | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 85.3 | 9% | 27% | ▼-24% |
| 11 | SRAMBLIN' WRECK | 12-1 | 10-1 | 86.4 | 8% | 26% | ▲+6% |
| 2 | CPNOBLE FACTOR | 20-1 | 20-1 | 86.9 | 8% | 25% | ▲+13% |
| 6 | EPBLOWN COVER | 15-1 | 14-1 | 85.4 | 8% | 23% | ▲+7% |
| 4 | EFIRST CALL BOB | 12-1 | 9.5-1 | 84.2 | 8% | 23% | ·+4% |
| 9 | EPGRIFFIN'S WHARF | 12-1 | 14-1 | 84.8 | 5% | 16% | ·-3% |
| 1 | EPDOUBLE ACT | 15-1 | 15-1 | 79.4 | 4% | 11% | ·-4% |
| 13 | EPFORTUNE SELLER | 30-1 | 34-1 | 76.9 | 2% | 7% | ·-1% |
| 7 | SCRSTIZ TROUBLE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | SCREPFORT NELSON | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | SCRPPAGODE | 2.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | SCRSAMBITION | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 14 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.