Sat, Jun 6
Race 13
Belmont-G1
Post: 7:04 · 1.25m · Dirt · $2.00M purse · 9 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 9 of 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 GROWTH EQUITY (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 POWERSHIFT (EP, QSP 6)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×5×5 key (top pick) on posts 9, 3, 4, 8, 6, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$20.00
20 combos
Hit prob
16.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$114.83
mean $152.26
Expected ROI
+27.5%
net $5.49
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×5×5 key (top pick) on posts [9, 3, 4, 8, 6, 2] — hits 16.7% of simulated runs
- · At $20 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $115 (mean $152; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
9, 3
B Contenders
4, 8, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 23.7% | $71.85 | +18% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 12.5% | $71.85 | +24% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 12.5% | $57.42 | +19% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 16.2% | $71.85 | +7% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.4% | $71.85 | +11% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | ASGOLDEN TEMPO | 4.5-1 | 4.0-1 | ·5.0-1 | 102.4 | 23% | 62% | ▲+19% |
| 3 | APCHIEF WALLABEE | 3.0-1 | 2.7-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 104.4 | 21% | 58% | ▲+15% |
| 4 | BSRENEGADE | 2.0-1 | 1.6-1 | ·1.8-1 | 101.8 | 20% | 56% | ▼-35% |
| 8 | BSEMERGING MARKET | 6.0-1 | 6.0-1 | ·5.0-1 | 100.2 | 10% | 34% | ▼-9% |
| 6 | BEPGROWTH EQUITY | 12-1 | 11-1 | ·12-1 | 92.2 | 8% | 28% | ▲+8% |
| 2 | EPPOWERSHIFT | 12-1 | 11-1 | ·11-1 | 93.0 | 8% | 26% | ·+5% |
| 5 | SOTTINHO | 20-1 | 20-1 | ·19-1 | 91.0 | 4% | 15% | ·+3% |
| 7 | PCOMMANDMENT | 6.0-1 | 6.9-1 | ·5.0-1 | 98.4 | 4% | 15% | ▼-27% |
| 1 | SVITRUVIAN MAN | 30-1 | 34-1 | ↓20-1 | 85.5 | 2% | 6% | ▼-7% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 13 · Sat, Jun 6 · Saratoga. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.