John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 5

CHASING THE CROWN

H '19 · SKIPSHOT × LA BELLE MARQUET

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: HERNANDEZ JUAN J

Today's prediction

92.5

Speed fig

8.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.97
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.63
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.33
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.27
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.92

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.26
  • BRIS Mud Pedigree -0.21
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.16
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.14
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 FG 1.13m Turf 4 3.8 99 96 Roused 4-5w;flattened
2026-01-24 GP 1.13m Turf 7 3.3 89 99 3p;4w1/4;bmpd 3/16
2025-12-20 GP 1.13m Turf 5 3.5 95 95 2-3wd; outkicked
2025-11-08 CD 1.13m Turf 7 10.5 91 95 Ins-2w;6pbtw upr;nobid
2025-08-31 KD 1m Turf 1 0.5 99 93 2p;bid5p1/4;held safe
2025-01-25 GP 1.13m Turf 3 1.5 98 100 Stymy ins1/4;btw5p str
2024-11-07 CD 1m Turf 1 0.1 93 90 Split 4wupr;dueld;edge
2024-10-10 KEE 1.06m Turf 8 10.5 78 95 Inch closer 4w2nd;tire
2024-08-29 KD 1.04m Turf 4 4.5 93 96 Insid run;no final bid
2024-06-29 CD 1.06m Turf 2 1.5 95 97 Ins;4w upr;edged place