John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 3

BALNIKHOV

G '19 · ADAAY × LEEWARD

Trainer: DAMATO PHILIP · Jockey: ROSARIO JOEL

Today's prediction

90.8

Speed fig

7.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.24
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.15
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.23
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.05
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.74

Pushing prediction down

  • Num Career Starts -0.33
  • Distance Change From Last -0.33
  • Mean Finish Pos Last 5 -0.12
  • Mean Speed Fig Career -0.12
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 SA 1.50m Turf 5 4.5 99 95 Mild shuffle3rd;tip3wd
2026-01-24 GP 1.50m Turf 3 1.5 92 95 3-4wd; bid; no match
2025-11-28 DMR 1.50m Turf 8 8.8 83 96 Steadied3/8;bumped5/16
2025-11-02 DMR 1.38m Turf 1 2.3 90 91 Ins-2wd;angled;handily
2025-08-30 DMR 1.38m Turf 8 7.5 86 96 On heels early;inside
2025-07-27 DMR 1.13m Turf 4 3.0 94 96 Ins;bid3w;floated str
2025-05-17 PIM 1.13m Turf 6 4.3 85 95 In clse st;angl out;in
2025-04-19 KEE 1.50m Turf 9 6.3 85 97 Ins;6p1/4;shifted in
2025-01-25 GP 1.13m Turf 10 5.3 94 100 Ins;stdy5/16&3/16;wknd
2024-11-29 DMR 1.50m Turf 2 0.5 105 97 Swung widest;led1/16