Sun, May 3
Race 9
Hcp75000
Post: 5:07 · 5f · Turf · $75K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 SOUPER QUEST (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 BEACH COLT (E, QSP 7)
- #1 GOVERNOR SAM (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 EXTENDO (E, QSP 5)
- #5 ESPERON (E, QSP 5)
- #4 COPPOLA (E, QSP 5)
- #3 MATTINGLY (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 1, 2, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$46.70
mean $57.82
Expected ROI
-80.0%
net $-4.80
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 1, 2, 9] — hits 2.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $47 (mean $58; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 1
B Contenders
2, 9, 6
C Value-edge longshots
5, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.1% | $36.86 | -87% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.0% | $53.64 | -75% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.0% | $43.20 | -84% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.4% | $60.83 | -71% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 8.0% | $48.79 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEPMATTINGLY | 4.5-1 | 3.3-1 | 90.2 | 14% | 41% | ▼-5% |
| 1 | AEPGOVERNOR SAM | 1.8-1 | 1.6-1 | 89.3 | 13% | 38% | ▼-53% |
| 2 | BEPSOUPER QUEST | 6.0-1 | 4.6-1 | 88.5 | 13% | 37% | ·+1% |
| 9 | BSOKIRO | 6.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 88.9 | 12% | 37% | ·+0% |
| 6 | BPSOSUA SUMMER | 8.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 86.3 | 11% | 33% | ·+5% |
| 8 | EEXTENDO | 10-1 | 8.2-1 | 86.6 | 11% | 32% | ▲+9% |
| 5 | CEESPERON | 20-1 | 19-1 | 86.0 | 9% | 29% | ▲+17% |
| 4 | ECOPPOLA | 5.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 86.6 | 9% | 29% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | CEBEACH COLT | 20-1 | 24-1 | 83.4 | 7% | 24% | ▲+12% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sun, May 3 · Gulfstream Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.