John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R8

PP 5

SOLEMN VOW

F '23 · CONSTITUTION × RAINIER

Trainer: STALL ALBERT M JR · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

81.1

Speed fig

26.8%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.98
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.64
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.62
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate +0.21
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Purse Log10 -0.70
  • Distance Change From Last -0.30
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.18
  • Today Field Size -0.17
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.16

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-04 KEE 6f Dirt 2 5.8 81 86 Tracked 4wd;no match
2026-02-28 FG 6f Dirt 5 11.0 75 87 Slow; stdy1/2; trail
2025-11-29 CD 6.5f Dirt 4 8.5 83 90 Ins wnnr;no mtch;faded
2025-10-18 KEE 6f Dirt 1 2.5 90 86 Stalk 3w;bid;drove clr
2025-09-11 CD 6f Dirt 3 2.0 84 84 Clear;caught1/16;yield
2025-08-02 SAR 6f Dirt 7 7.8 73 85 Bumped st; weakened