Derby 2026
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PP 7

LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR

F '23 · CONSTITUTION × DISOBEDIENT

Trainer: STIDHAM MICHAEL · Jockey: SAEZ LUIS

Today's prediction

87.3

Speed fig

33.9%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.3 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Max Speed Fig Career +1.50
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +1.18
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.64
  • Class Par Trend +0.61
  • Days Since Last Race +0.25

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.49
  • Last Speed Fig -0.25
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.15
  • Prior Starts At Churchill -0.05
  • Speed Fig Trend -0.03

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 FG 1.06m Dirt 3 8.5 82 94 Bid 3w; weakened
2026-02-14 FG 1.06m Dirt 2 0.5 89 95 Stalk 2w;hung;bested
2026-01-17 FG 1.04m Dirt 2 0.3 83 89 Press3w; gamely
2025-12-20 FG 1.04m Dirt 2 0.1 83 90 Bmp; lost iron; gamely
2025-12-04 FG 6f Dirt 2 0.5 80 82 Btwn; bmp 1/16; gamely
2025-10-12 WO 7f Dirt 7 24.0 54 83 Stalked 2w; gave way
2025-09-10 CNL 7f Dirt 1 0.1 80 76 Came again late;nod